If I Were Investing in Dubai Today, What Would I Buy?

This is one of the questions investors ask me most often: What type of property would you personally buy in Dubai today?

After more than 18 years in the Dubai real estate market, my answer is quite straightforward. My first choice today would be commercial property—particularly a well-argued office or retail unit.

My First Choice: Offices and Retail

Commercial property in Dubai has continued to hold its value remarkably well. Demand for quality offices remains strong, good retail units are limited, and the right commercial property can generate a much higher rental return than a typical residential investment.

According to current market data, Dubai office rents increased by approximately 13% year-on-year in Q2 2026, while prime office rents rose by around 16%. Occupancy across the office market remained close to 94%, showing that businesses are still competing for good-quality commercial space. ("CBRE Mullion" (https://www.cbre.ae/insights/figures/uae-real-estate-market-review-q2-2026))

With the right purchase price, location and tenant, it is still possible to achieve a double-digit return from commercial property. However, I always tell my clients that a high advertised ROI does not automatically mean a good investment.

Before recommending an office or retail unit, I want to know:

• Who is the tenant?
• How strong is the tenancy contract?
• What is the real net return after service charges and expenses?
• Is the location easy to access?
• Is there enough parking?
• For a retail unit, does it have good visibility and genuine foot traffic?
• Can we resell the property easily in the future?

A commercial property producing 9% from a strong tenant in a quality building may be a better investment than a unit advertising 12% with a weak tenant or an unrealistic rental valuation.

The numbers must be real.

My Second Choice: Townhouses and Villas

If my client does not want commercial property and prefers a residential investment, I would currently look at townhouses and villas before apartments.

The market is becoming more selective. A significant amount of new residential supply is being delivered, and most of that supply consists of apartments. Villas and townhouses are more limited because land in established communities is limited.

They also attract genuine demand from families and end users—not only short-term investors.

Recent market figures show this difference. In Q2 2026, average apartment transaction prices declined by approximately 4% compared with the previous quarter, while villa and townhouse prices declined by only around 0.8%.

That does not mean every villa is a good investment. I would still focus on established or nearly completed communities with strong family demand, good schools, practical layouts and limited competing supply.

I would rather buy a sensibly priced townhouse in a good community than an oversized villa with an unusual layout or an unrealistic asking price.

Apartments Would Be My Third Choice Today

I am not against apartment investment. There are still excellent opportunities, but I would be much more selective today.

Many areas have a large pipeline of similar apartments. When thousands of almost identical units enter the market, landlords have to compete on rent and owners have to compete when selling.

I would consider buying an apartment only if it had a genuine advantage, such as:

• A unique Burj Khalifa, waterfront or skyline view
• A prime and difficult-to-replace location
• Direct access to the metro
• Strong hotel or branded-residence management
• An efficient layout with reasonable service charges
• A purchase price clearly below comparable properties

Average apartment rental yields in Dubai may still look attractive, but investors must calculate the net return, not only the gross number shown in a sales presentation.

Service charges, vacancy, maintenance, furnishing and future competition can change the investment completely.

I Would Not Buy a Property Simply Because It Is New

One of the biggest mistakes I see is buying based on an attractive showroom, an easy payment plan or promises of guaranteed returns.

A good payment plan does not automatically make a good investment.

Before buying, I want to understand the final price per square foot, realistic rent, competing supply, service charges, developer history and the expected resale market. Most importantly, I want to know who will rent or buy this property from my client in the future.

Every investment needs an exit strategy.

My Honest Order of Preference

If I were investing my own money in Dubai today, my priorities would be:

1. A well-priced office or retail unit with genuine income potential
2. A townhouse or villa in an established, family-oriented community
3. An apartment only if it offers something truly special or is priced below its real market value

Dubai remains one of the world’s strongest real estate investment destinations, but we have entered a market where careful selection matters more than ever.

Not every launch is an opportunity, and not every high advertised ROI is real.

At Terra Firma Real Estate, I do not believe in selling a client whichever project is currently being promoted most heavily. My responsibility is to study the numbers, explain the risks honestly and recommend the property that I would be comfortable buying myself.

Arash Sepassi
Terra Firma Real Estate